How to Calculate Your Real Estate Pipeline Value
73% of Agents Don't Know Their Pipeline Value
Here's the simple formula that changes everything — and how to use it to predict your income.
Quick question: What's the total value of your current pipeline?
Not a guess. The actual number.
If you can't answer with confidence, you're flying blind. And you're not alone — 73% of agents I talk to have no idea what their pipeline is worth.
This matters because your pipeline value determines:
- How much you should spend on lead generation
- Whether you can afford to hire help
- If you're on track for your income goals
- Which leads deserve your attention right now
Here's how to calculate it properly — and more importantly, how to use that number to make better decisions.
The Basic Pipeline Formula
📊 Pipeline Value Formula
Pipeline Value = Σ (Deal Value × Probability of Close)
Sum up every active deal, multiply each by its probability of closing, then add them together.
Deal Stage Probabilities
To get your real pipeline value, weight each deal by its probability of closing:
| Stage | Definition | Close Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Hot Lead | Pre-approved, active search, timeline under 30 days | 60% |
| Warm Lead | Serious but not urgent. Timeline 1-3 months | 30% |
| Cold Lead | Interested but timeline unclear. 3+ months out | 10% |
| Under Contract | Signed agreement, in escrow | 85% |
| Closing Soon | Clear to close, final walkthrough done | 95% |
📋 Example: Weighted Pipeline Calculation
An agent with 8 leads totaling $3.8M in potential volume:
- 3 hot leads @ 60% = $915K weighted
- 3 warm leads @ 30% = $461K weighted
- 2 cold leads @ 10% = $99K weighted
Weighted Pipeline: $1.36M → Expected GCI (3%): $40,755
See the difference? Raw pipeline showed $115K in potential commissions. Weighted shows $40K.
That's a $75,000 reality check.
How to Use Your Pipeline Number
1. Lead Generation Budget
Rule of thumb: Don't spend more than 20% of your expected pipeline value on lead generation.
If your weighted pipeline is $40K, don't spend more than ~$8K on lead gen. If you spend more, you're gambling.
2. Time Allocation
Your hottest leads (60%+ probability) deserve 60% of your time. Warm leads get 30%. Cold leads get 10%.
Most agents do the opposite — they spend hours chasing cold leads while hot ones go lukewarm.
3. Goal-Setting
Want to close $300K in GCI this year? You need roughly $1M in weighted pipeline at any given time (assuming 30% overall close rate).
📈 Calculate Your Pipeline Automatically
Real Estate OS analyzes your CRM and shows your exact weighted pipeline value — plus which deals are most likely to close.
Analyze My Pipeline →Free 5-minute CRM analysis
The Monthly Pipeline Review
Every Monday morning (15 minutes):
- Update stage for each active lead
- Remove dead leads (no activity in 60+ days)
- Add new leads from last week
- Recalculate weighted value
- Adjust your week's priorities based on hot leads
Common Pipeline Mistakes
Mistake #1: Counting everything at 100%
This inflates your pipeline and leads to poor decisions.
Mistake #2: Never removing dead leads
If someone hasn't responded in 90 days, move them to long-term nurture.
Mistake #3: Not tracking lead sources
If you don't know which sources convert best, you can't optimize.
Your Action Items
- Right now: List every active lead in your CRM
- Assign stage: Hot (60%), Warm (30%), Cold (10%)
- Calculate weighted value: Deal value × probability
- Set a target: What should your pipeline be for your income goal?
- Identify gaps: Do you need more leads or better conversion?
The agents who know their numbers win. Everyone else just works hard and hopes.